Poker

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arturchix
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Poker

Postby arturchix » Aug 21 2009, 16:36

I'm surprised we don't have a discussion about poker - anyone playing it? I recently registered at PokerStars and having fun so far in the no-limit Holdem freeroll tournaments. One thing I'm very much certain - in poker lady Luck has a weird sense of humor. ;)

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Fewtger
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Postby Fewtger » Nov 6 2009, 15:08

Poker isn't about luck. It's about timing and statistics. Picking up "tells" isn't as big a part as people think.
Playing good poker is easy (no really, play good hands, fold bad ones). Continually playing good poker is hard as hell, and that's where people fail.

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arturchix
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Postby arturchix » Nov 6 2009, 16:21

Well, sure it is - a big part of hands is decided by simple luck and it doesn't matter how skilled you are. You may have a superior hand and great chances to win (let's say 80% against 20% when meet two different pairs - for example, both go all-in preflop with AA and KK) but you can easily lose even that if it's not your day. I've managed to lose a strong Full House with 99% odds to win - on turn and river my opponent out of nowhere got Royal Flush, obviously we were all in both.

Of course, you can't be a good poker player without being patient and playing, betting, folding cards and reading opponents correctly but even the best players can lose simply because of bad luck.

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Postby Qurqirish Dragon » Nov 6 2009, 17:23

Luck will determine if you win or lose in the short run. Skill will determine the long-run. Skill here includes not so much reading tells from others, but giving false tells of yourself. Obviously knowing the percentages helps, but I would assume most top players know those, and so that isn't a real factor.
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Fewtger
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Postby Fewtger » Nov 8 2009, 22:27

arturchix wrote:Well, sure it is - a big part of hands is decided by simple luck and it doesn't matter how skilled you are. You may have a superior hand and great chances to win (let's say 80% against 20% when meet two different pairs - for example, both go all-in preflop with AA and KK) but you can easily lose even that if it's not your day. I've managed to lose a strong Full House with 99% odds to win - on turn and river my opponent out of nowhere got Royal Flush, obviously we were all in both.

Of course, you can't be a good poker player without being patient and playing, betting, folding cards and reading opponents correctly but even the best players can lose simply because of bad luck.


The odds of losing an all-in vs an ace-high straight flush are too small to believe, and I highly doubt your opponent would push a straight flush draw (assuming he knew you had a monster).
Poker is not determined by luck per se. Of course, it IS possible to lose good hands, but far from common. Should you lose a big hand...well, **** happens. But saying that poker is determined by luck, is far from the truth.
As Qurqirish Dragon said; it's only so in the short-run.

Ordinarily, the best hand wins. Period.

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Postby arturchix » Nov 12 2009, 20:18

Uhuh, right. Yet somehow even the last November 9 table became ridiculous how luck beats skill. Two amateurs - Darvin Moon and Joe Cada - fighting for the champion title, that was just incredible and terrible to watch. Especially the latter should have lost good 3 times being a clear underdog while all-in yet flop saved him every single time. I did cheer for him in the beginning but being THAT lucky...I felt really sad for the Frenchman. That was some poor poker. And the funny thing is that when heads-up they were congratulating each other for the great play - that just made me laugh.

Luck plays a major part in poker, whether you like it or not.

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Postby Fewtger » Nov 13 2009, 13:56

No, it doesn't. You're just far too short-sighted and base your conclusions on

a) your personal experiences
b) one or two (agreed; unfortunate) events.

Still, it's a game of statistics, NOT luck.
You also neglected the fact, that Tournaments have familiar winners. If luck was "such a big part of poker" it would statistically be impossible for someone to win a second WSOP. And there are plenty of players who've proven that wrong.
Luck isn't such a major part of poker, whether you like it, or not.

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Postby arturchix » Nov 13 2009, 14:14

Heh, I don't deny that the skill plays the biggest part in poker that's why some players have managed to win a second WSOP, that's why players like Ivey and Negreanu can be considered as the best players who have cashed most money among all players. Yet the fact itself that each year the WSOP Main Event Final table reach several amateurs and that lots of pros never make even near it, that's gotta mean something. If poker would only be determined by skill and statistics, we would see the final tables with the same players over and over, yet it never happens. Phil Ivey, by most poker players acknowledged as the best player of all time, has reached the WSOP Main Event Final table only once. Oh, and all his skill was useless when he and Darvin Moon went all in with AK and AQ respectively - your skills can't influence what you will get on flop, turn and river. And Ivey got eliminated by amateur.

So luck still plays a major part of poker, whether like it or not. :P

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Postby aaelgr » Nov 13 2009, 14:55

Surely luck is inherent in all card games? You either get the good cards or you don't. The skill comes in things such as reading your opponents, and being able to work out if they're raising you on crap or not.
Though of course, if you want to play a card game which requires some skill then you should be playing bridge!
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Postby Fewtger » Nov 16 2009, 9:53

Yes, aaelgr is right.

Secondly, people tend to remember only the times they lost such hands, that's why it seems poker is based so much on luck. Think about it.
AA has about 80% to win against any two cards. So approximately, you'll 4 out of 5 times.
People then only remember the 1/5 they lost. Do you remember the times you won with AA? No, you don't. You probably only remember being called pre-flop, filled with joy to see KQ, only to see two Q's on the flop. That's what people see, and that's why it's considered "luck".

"luck"? Yes, "luck". It's a game of statistics, and you should've known that Aces don't always hold up. After all, it's "only" 80 percent...


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